Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ENS prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-10-27 12.150628 13.664136 15.402558 17.573245 20.249373 23.493864 27.811421
2024-11-03 11.353235 13.508482 16.221525 19.994381 25.295872 32.817565 45.033256
2024-11-10 10.468275 12.907730 16.167134 21.049857 28.610808 40.799966 64.571128
2024-11-17 9.213660 11.587039 14.866424 19.997712 28.432433 43.219925 76.152797
2024-11-24 8.492443 10.881419 14.290430 19.858714 29.589032 48.266845 96.939656
2024-12-01 7.866490 10.229160 13.688534 19.541496 30.313877 52.738096 120.955126
2024-12-08 7.407135 9.765567 13.303701 19.496820 31.500103 58.703312 157.780205
2024-12-15 7.079966 9.462376 13.124314 19.760387 33.342988 67.182522 221.905128
2024-12-22 6.632610 8.937319 12.532242 19.187535 33.287745 70.696336 273.620028
2024-12-29 6.339081 8.625941 12.256779 19.156692 34.421514 78.397576 386.376877
2025-01-05 5.953090 8.142618 11.651682 18.414371 33.734114 79.987706 462.328967
2025-01-12 5.574862 7.650115 10.995815 17.501502 32.465620 79.065409 513.155108
2025-01-19 5.212655 7.180223 10.374359 16.650858 31.351693 78.881472 597.280657
2025-01-26 5.358569 7.537143 11.212984 18.881036 38.873065 121.160809 5104.104475
2025-02-02 5.297234 7.545735 11.430436 19.846443 43.416721 159.990354 NaN
2025-02-09 4.992170 7.125047 10.823518 18.883777 41.719458 158.286228 NaN
2025-02-16 4.815826 6.913897 10.592631 18.756425 42.725676 178.202895 NaN
2025-02-23 4.633796 6.682987 10.307237 18.465635 43.115155 195.049816 NaN
2025-03-02 4.494381 6.518198 10.135819 18.424664 44.392880 224.269964 NaN
2025-03-09 4.395997 6.419243 10.083471 18.666313 46.830879 276.333006 NaN
2025-03-16 4.222503 6.179817 9.740028 18.140911 46.146860 288.281310 NaN
2025-03-23 4.111689 6.046468 9.598260 18.112603 47.487763 338.669547 NaN
2025-03-30 3.941511 5.800495 9.218021 17.430673 45.918740 334.774865 NaN